The Nintendo Switch 2 Projected to Dominate Next-Gen Console Sales
DFC Intelligence, a leading video game market research firm, forecasts the Nintendo Switch 2 to achieve phenomenal sales, surpassing all competitors even before its official launch. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, projects sales exceeding 15-17 million units in 2025 alone, solidifying Nintendo's position as the console market leader.
A Projected 80 Million Units by 2028
DFC Intelligence labels the Switch 2 the "clear winner," citing its anticipated 2025 release as a key advantage, leaving a significant gap before potential competitors from Microsoft and Sony. The report predicts cumulative sales exceeding 80 million units by 2028, suggesting Nintendo might face manufacturing challenges to meet the expected high demand.
While Microsoft and Sony are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain in early stages. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028, but the Switch 2's head start gives it a substantial competitive edge. The report suggests only one of these later releases will achieve significant success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.
The Switch's enduring popularity is undeniable, recently surpassing the PlayStation 2's lifetime US sales, according to Circana (formerly NPD). Mat Piscatella, executive director and analyst at Circana, announced on BlueSky that the Switch has sold 46.6 million units in the US, making it the second best-selling console in US history, behind only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is notable despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.
A Resurgent Video Game Industry
The overall video game industry is projected for significant growth. DFC Intelligence's CEO, David Cole, highlights the industry's remarkable 20x growth over three decades and anticipates a return to healthy growth through the end of the decade following a recent dip. 2025 is poised to be a particularly strong year, driven by anticipated releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI, fueling consumer excitement and spending.
The expanding gaming audience, projected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027, is further boosted by the rising popularity of portable gaming and the influence of esports and gaming personalities. This, in turn, stimulates hardware sales across PC and consoles.
